Good Morning.
Whelp, the sudden and dramatic departure of President Biden is likely to have many repercussions that have not been thought through fully yet.
Naturally, the rest of the world is a bit more worried about what the future might bring here on our shores.
A number of global hotspots could become a whole lot hotter under an American Fascist Dictatorship.
Joe Biden's withdrawal from the U.S. presidential race injects greater uncertainty into the world at a time when Western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, a more assertive China in Asia and the rise of the far right in Europe.
During a five-decade career in politics, Biden developed extensive personal relationships with multiple foreign leaders that none of the potential replacements on the Democratic ticket can match. After his announcement, messages of support and gratitude for his years of service poured in from near and far.
The scope of foreign policy challenges facing the next U.S. president makes clear how consequential what happens in Washington is for the rest of the planet.
There's a laundry-list of places and things from the article referenced. I'll not quote it all, but at least we can try to cherry-pick a relevant sentence or two.
IsraelIsrael’s left-wing Haaretz daily newspaper ran a story scrutinizing Harris’ record of support for Israel, pointing to her reputation as Biden’s “bad cop" who has vocally admonished Israel for its offensive in Gaza. In recent months, she has gone further than Biden in calling for a cease-fire, denouncing Israel's invasion of Rafah and expressing horror over the civilian death toll in Gaza.
“With Biden leaving, Israel has lost perhaps the last Zionist president,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “A new Democratic candidate will upend the dynamic.”
Ukraine“Most Europeans realize that Ukraine is increasingly going to be their burden,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, a research institute. “Everyone is trying to get ready for all the possible outcomes.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that he respected the “tough but strong decision” by Biden to drop out of the campaign, and he thanked Biden for his help “in preventing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from occupying our country.”
Trump has promised to end Russia's war on Ukraine in one day if he is elected — a prospect that has raised fears in Ukraine that Russia might be allowed to keep the territory it occupies.
ChinaTrump’s “America First” doctrine exacerbated tensions with Beijing. But disputes with the geopolitical rival and economic colossus over wars, trade, technology and security continued into Biden's term.
China's official reaction to the U.S. presidential race has been careful.
“The U.S. elections are U.S. internal politics. I have no comment on this,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.
IranAfter then-President Trump in 2018 withdrew from Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers, Biden said he wanted to reverse his predecessor's hawkish stance. But the Biden administration has maintained severe economic sanctions and overseen failed attempts to renegotiate the agreement.
The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi — the supreme leader's hard-line protege — in a helicopter crash vaulted a new reformist to the presidency in Iran, generating new opportunities and risks. Masoud Pezeshkian has said he wants to help Iran open up to the world but has maintained a defiant tone against the U.S.
During a briefing Monday, Nasser Kanaani, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, brushed off Biden's withdrawal.
And perhaps hand-in-hand with Ukraine...we'll stop with:
Europe and NATOMany Europeans were happy to see Trump go after his years of disparaging the European Union and undermining NATO. Trump's seemingly dismissive attitude toward European allies in last month's presidential debate did nothing to assuage those concerns.
Biden, on the other hand, has supported close American relations with bloc leaders.
That closeness was on stark display after Biden's decision to bow out of the race. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called his choice “probably the most difficult one in your life.” The newly installed British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said he respected Biden’s “decision based on what he believes is in the best interests of the American people.”
There was also an outpouring of affection from Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, who called Biden a “proud American with an Irish soul."
The question of whether NATO can maintain its momentum in supporting Ukraine and checking the ambitions of other authoritarian states hangs in the balance of this presidential election, analysts say.
“They don't want to see Donald Trump as president. So there's quite a bit of relief but also quite a bit of nervousness" about Biden's decision to drop out, said Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Like many in the United States, but perhaps more so, they are really quite confused.”
Moving on, we'll be looking back. It's becoming harder and harder to say if it was an actual assasination attempt, or a false-flag operation. Nevertheless - I said this myself. "No matter what you think of the candidate, this was a massive fail on behalf of the Secret Service."
Congress, at least, agrees with me.
WASHINGTON — Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle said Monday that her agency failed in its mission to protect former President Donald Trump during a highly contentious congressional hearing with lawmakers of both major political parties demanding she resign over security failures that allowed a gunman to scale a roof and open fire at a campaign rally.
In her first congressional hearing over the July 13 assassination attempt, Cheatle repeatedly angered lawmakers by evading questions, citing ongoing investigations. She called the attempt on Trump’s life the Secret Service’s “most significant operational failure” in decades. Cheatle acknowledged that the Secret Service was told about a suspicious person “between two and five times” before the shooting.
Yet, Cheatle gave no indication she intends to resign even as she said she takes “full responsibility” for any security lapses at the Pennsylvania rally. Cheatle vowed to “move heaven and earth” to ensure that nothing like it ever happens again.
“The Secret Service’s solemn mission is to protect our nation’s leaders. On July 13th, we failed,” Cheatle said.
Surprisingly perhaps, I bet this is one issue that might actually see some bi-partisan cooperation.
And finally today, just a passing note - take it for what it's worth.
JD Vance is a combat veteran, and was a Marine.
Vance, 39, is the first post-9/11 veteran to find a spot on a major party ticket and, if elected, would likely be the first Marine veteran to serve as the second-in-command, a Military.com analysis of vice presidential biographies found. He is the first veteran on a major party ticket since John McCain in 2008.
Of the 49 vice presidents in U.S. history, less than half had some sort of military experience. Examples included service in militias, the National Guard, the U.S. Navy and Army. Military.com could not find any evidence that any vice president served in the Marine Corps.
Of course, this doesn't make him any better or worse than any other candidate. But it is worth noting.