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It's Getting Interesting
Author: BobR
Date: 01/17/2024 13:51:34
We are now officially into the 2024 presidential race. The Iowa caucus has occurred, and the large number of candidates running for the nomination is essentially down to three, with the suspension of Christie's and Ramaswamy's campaigns. It appears that Christie may be supporting Nikki Haley (while privately saying she has no chance), and Ramaswamy has vowed to fight for tRumpy (i.e.: he's hoping to be the veep candidate).
The "tRump-itization" of the Republican party is causing problems for them, however. As seen on Colbert last night, and Rachel Maddow's show on MSNBC, Republican parties in several states are running out of money just as the election season starts to ramp up:
Add to this, the GOP already lost a seat in the Florida state House to a Democrat as part of a special election. That Democrat - Tom Keen - will need to defend that seat in November, but there's no telling at this point who will run against him.
None of this is really being noticed, due to all the noise in Iowa. There's a lot of pontificating about tRump's "landslide" win, but there's a lot of other things to consider beneath the shiny surface, including the reality that the "landslide win" was barely over 50%, with the slightly less than 50% vote being "not tRump". There's also Nikki Haley, who will outlast DeathSantis and be the primary challenger to tRump, pulling in Republicans who are sick of tRumpy.
On top of that, there's the looming reality of tRumpy's legal situation. Per the Rachel Maddow Show, one-third of republicans in Iowa think a convicted criminal shouldn't be president. Rachel seems pretty certain he'll be convicted.
That will be a historic moment, if/when he's convicted, while being the candidate for the Republican party. He's already being excluded from the ballet in 3 states; a conviction could bounce him from several more, and set up a constitutional crisis that will need to be adjudicated by the SCOTUS.
You wanted to live in "interesting times"? You got it.
The "tRump-itization" of the Republican party is causing problems for them, however. As seen on Colbert last night, and Rachel Maddow's show on MSNBC, Republican parties in several states are running out of money just as the election season starts to ramp up:
There are two competitive House seats on the line as Republicans are looking to defend their slim majority in the lower chamber next year. Not to mention, Arizona is going to be a major swing state in the 2024 presidential election. But the state GOP has just over $23,000 in cash on hand in its federal account, according to federal filings, and roughly $144,000 according to their Q2 state filing.
[...]
If it makes Arizona Republicans feel any better, it’s not completely alone. The Detroit News reported two weeks ago, for example, that the Michigan GOP’s latest filing showed it had about $93,000 in its bank accounts — a total party insiders characterized as “alarming.”
Around the same time, The Daily Beast reported that the Minnesota GOP’s latest Federal Election Commission filing said it had less than $54 cash on hand.
What’s more, in May, The Colorado Sun reported that the GOP in the Rocky Mountain State was facing a financial crunch so serious that it “didn’t pay any employees.” The deputy chief of staff for the Colorado House GOP soon after characterized the state party as “bankrupt” and unable to afford rent payment on the party’s offices.
Add to this, the GOP already lost a seat in the Florida state House to a Democrat as part of a special election. That Democrat - Tom Keen - will need to defend that seat in November, but there's no telling at this point who will run against him.
None of this is really being noticed, due to all the noise in Iowa. There's a lot of pontificating about tRump's "landslide" win, but there's a lot of other things to consider beneath the shiny surface, including the reality that the "landslide win" was barely over 50%, with the slightly less than 50% vote being "not tRump". There's also Nikki Haley, who will outlast DeathSantis and be the primary challenger to tRump, pulling in Republicans who are sick of tRumpy.
On top of that, there's the looming reality of tRumpy's legal situation. Per the Rachel Maddow Show, one-third of republicans in Iowa think a convicted criminal shouldn't be president. Rachel seems pretty certain he'll be convicted.
That will be a historic moment, if/when he's convicted, while being the candidate for the Republican party. He's already being excluded from the ballet in 3 states; a conviction could bounce him from several more, and set up a constitutional crisis that will need to be adjudicated by the SCOTUS.
You wanted to live in "interesting times"? You got it.
Comments:
Order comments Newest to Oldest Refresh Comments
Comment by 
shelaghc on 01/17/2024 14:23:48
shelaghc on 01/17/2024 14:23:48
Two other things to consider between the Iowa caucus and the upcoming primaries:
Iowa Caucus turnout was about 15% of registered voters with less than 110,000 in attendance out of 752,000 registered Republicans, so drumpf's "victory" accounted for less than 60,000 registered voters in that state.
Also, apparently some primary states have already printed their ballots and still have a full slate of nominees.
Michigan
Texas
The state of Washington
That's certainly going to make a difference on who winds up with the nomination.
It's going to be interesting to see what the actual voters in those states, rather than a caucus, think about the R candidates - or how many of them don't even know who's dropped out of the race.
Iowa Caucus turnout was about 15% of registered voters with less than 110,000 in attendance out of 752,000 registered Republicans, so drumpf's "victory" accounted for less than 60,000 registered voters in that state.
Also, apparently some primary states have already printed their ballots and still have a full slate of nominees.
Michigan
Texas
The state of Washington
That's certainly going to make a difference on who winds up with the nomination.
It's going to be interesting to see what the actual voters in those states, rather than a caucus, think about the R candidates - or how many of them don't even know who's dropped out of the race.
Comment by 
Raine on 01/17/2024 14:39:03
Raine on 01/17/2024 14:39:03
They are a hot mess.
Good Morning!
Good Morning!
Comment by Will_in_Ca on 01/17/2024 14:49:04
Good morning, bloggers!!!!
The GOP has to ask themselves why they are not getting the funds that they once did. Their party has shrunk but is still being treated by the media as being about half of our nation.
In some personal news, I had orientation for the new job yesterday and start teaching today.
The GOP has to ask themselves why they are not getting the funds that they once did. Their party has shrunk but is still being treated by the media as being about half of our nation.
In some personal news, I had orientation for the new job yesterday and start teaching today.
Comment by Raine on 01/17/2024 14:51:07
Have fun!
Raine on 01/17/2024 14:51:07
Quote by Will_in_Ca:
Good morning, bloggers!!!!
The GOP has to ask themselves why they are not getting the funds that they once did. Their party has shrunk but is still being treated by the media as being about half of our nation.
In some personal news, I had orientation for the new job yesterday and start teaching today.
Comment by shelaghc on 01/17/2024 17:59:08
Because I'm mathing today, I just found out that 60,000 is less than 8% of 752,000.
Not sure if anyone will see this though.
shelaghc on 01/17/2024 17:59:08
Quote by shelaghc:
Two other things to consider between the Iowa caucus and the upcoming primaries:
Iowa Caucus turnout was about 15% of registered voters with less than 110,000 in attendance out of 752,000 registered Republicans, so drumpf's "victory" accounted for less than 60,000 registered voters in that state.
Also, apparently some primary states have already printed their ballots and still have a full slate of nominees.
Michigan
Texas
The state of Washington
That's certainly going to make a difference on who winds up with the nomination.
It's going to be interesting to see what the actual voters in those states, rather than a caucus, think about the R candidates - or how many of them don't even know who's dropped out of the race.
Because I'm mathing today, I just found out that 60,000 is less than 8% of 752,000.
Not sure if anyone will see this though.
Comment by 
BobR on 01/17/2024 20:48:26
I don't understand people who don't bother to vote in primaries, then complain about the poor options during the general election. Republicans are particularly lazy about it, so this tiny minority of people in the state essentially gets to choose the person who will likely eventually win the state.
BobR on 01/17/2024 20:48:26
Quote by shelaghc:Quote by shelaghc:
Two other things to consider between the Iowa caucus and the upcoming primaries:
Iowa Caucus turnout was about 15% of registered voters with less than 110,000 in attendance out of 752,000 registered Republicans, so drumpf's "victory" accounted for less than 60,000 registered voters in that state.
Also, apparently some primary states have already printed their ballots and still have a full slate of nominees.
Michigan
Texas
The state of Washington
That's certainly going to make a difference on who winds up with the nomination.
It's going to be interesting to see what the actual voters in those states, rather than a caucus, think about the R candidates - or how many of them don't even know who's dropped out of the race.
Because I'm mathing today, I just found out that 60,000 is less than 8% of 752,000.
Not sure if anyone will see this though.
I don't understand people who don't bother to vote in primaries, then complain about the poor options during the general election. Republicans are particularly lazy about it, so this tiny minority of people in the state essentially gets to choose the person who will likely eventually win the state.
Comment by 
TriSec on 01/18/2024 14:16:20
TriSec on 01/18/2024 14:16:20
Good morning.
Well, here on the front lines in Massachusetts, our airwaves are awash with political ads these days. Local news is giving mountains of coverage to them all.
In this Commonwealth, we'll get some carryover. While the NH primary is January 23, Massachusetts is not far behind, on March 5. But once NH is done, the political ad money instantly evaporates.
In Blue Massachusetts, this is not a contested primary. It literally doesn't matter who wins the Republican nomination, and we all know this state will support whatever Democrat carries the next banner.
So - I may actually be one of those people that Mr. Trump was just denigrating. There was a presser or campaign event where he was denouncing the NH Primary,. stating that anyone could vote there. In fact, Biden Democrats were registering just so they could vote against him in the Republican primary.
New Hampshire is like this Commonwealth - it's what is called a "Partisan Primary". Registered party voters can only vote in their party, but unenrolled voters can select a ballot of any party on election day, and then remain unenrolled.
I personally am an unenrolled voter in Massachusetts. And while sometimes I actually feel disenfranchised here (that's worth a blog on its own), so far nothing is changing my plan to cross the line and cast a ballot for Niki Haley this time.
Not to worry; the general election is not in doubt in Massachusetts. We will give our 11 votes to President Biden.
Well, here on the front lines in Massachusetts, our airwaves are awash with political ads these days. Local news is giving mountains of coverage to them all.
In this Commonwealth, we'll get some carryover. While the NH primary is January 23, Massachusetts is not far behind, on March 5. But once NH is done, the political ad money instantly evaporates.
In Blue Massachusetts, this is not a contested primary. It literally doesn't matter who wins the Republican nomination, and we all know this state will support whatever Democrat carries the next banner.
So - I may actually be one of those people that Mr. Trump was just denigrating. There was a presser or campaign event where he was denouncing the NH Primary,. stating that anyone could vote there. In fact, Biden Democrats were registering just so they could vote against him in the Republican primary.
New Hampshire is like this Commonwealth - it's what is called a "Partisan Primary". Registered party voters can only vote in their party, but unenrolled voters can select a ballot of any party on election day, and then remain unenrolled.
I personally am an unenrolled voter in Massachusetts. And while sometimes I actually feel disenfranchised here (that's worth a blog on its own), so far nothing is changing my plan to cross the line and cast a ballot for Niki Haley this time.
Not to worry; the general election is not in doubt in Massachusetts. We will give our 11 votes to President Biden.